| Discovery[1] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Mt. Lemmon Survey |
| Discovery date | 20 March 2007 |
| Designations | |
| 2007 FT3 | |
| |
| Orbital characteristics[4] | |
| Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 9 | |
| Observation arc | 1.2 days[5] |
| Aphelion | 1.48±0.02 AU (Q) |
| Perihelion | 0.782±0.007 AU (q) |
| 1.13±0.02 AU (a) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.308±0.006 (e) |
| 1.2±0.03 years | |
Average orbital speed | 28.4 km/s[a] |
| 298°±3° (M) | |
| Inclination | 26.9°±0.43° (i) |
| 9.9°±0.2° (Ω) | |
| 277°±2° (ω) | |
| Earth MOID | 0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ? |
| Jupiter MOID | 3.83 AU (573 million km) ? |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions |
|
| 20?[4] | |
2007 FT3 is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 astronomical units (28.4 ± 1.5 million kilometres) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of –3.06, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT3 eighth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[6]
Potential impacts
Possible impacts were projected for 2 October 2013,[5] 3 October 2019,[7] and 3 October 2024. Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations could not rule out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on any of those dates.[8][9] None of these impacts happened, nor was the asteroid detected near those dates.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC[10] nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty[11] region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-10-02 | 1.9 billion | 0.94 AU (141 million km) | 1.0 AU (150 million km) | 1.1 AU (160 million km) | 1.2 AU (180 million km) | ± 330 million km |
| 2019-10-03 | 11 million | 0.93 AU (139 million km) | 0.95 AU (142 million km)[7] | 1.3 AU (190 million km) | 1.4 AU (210 million km) | ± 620 million km |
| 2024-10-03 | 11 million | 1.7 AU (250 million km)[9] | 1.7 AU (250 million km)[8] | 2.0 AU (300 million km)[10] | 2.0 AU (300 million km)[12] | ± 500 million km[9] |
See also
Notes
- ^ v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.
References
- ^ "MPEC 2007-F60: 2007 FT3". IAU Minor Planet Center. 21 March 2007. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (K07F03T)
- ^ a b "NEODyS-2 Risk List". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 20 November 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
- ^ "2007 FT3". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 11 January 2020.
- ^ a b c "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 FT3)" (last observation: 2007-03-21; arc: 1 day). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
- ^ a b c d e "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2007 FT3". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 30 December 2018. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (Wayback Machine 2012)
- ^ "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring". NASA/JPL Center for NEO Studies. Retrieved 24 September 2024. (Use Unconstrained Settings to reveal impact probability below 1e-6)
- ^ a b "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
- ^ a b "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2024". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 4 April 2021. Retrieved 4 April 2021.
- ^ a b c "Horizons Batch for 2024-10-02 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 10 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = 487811582 for 2024-Oct-02.)
- ^ a b "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
- ^ Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 6 April 2017 generates RNG_3sigma = 620915473 for 3 October 2019.) - ^ "Find_Orb for 2024-10-02". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 20 April 2021. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
External links
- 2007 FT3 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
- Ephemerides · Observation prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Observational info · Close approaches · Physical info · Orbit animation
- 2007 FT3 at ESA–space situational awareness
- Ephemerides · Observations · Orbit · Physical properties · Summary
- 2007 FT3 at the JPL Small-Body Database
